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CORE MODEL
Probabilities before opinions.
Elo, Poisson and Dixon–Coles signals are blended into explainable 1/X/2, goals and score distributions.
European football intelligence
Read the match.
Measure the edge.
A public preview of match probabilities, market methodology, multiple analysis angles and transparent model evidence.
PUBLICCorrect / Missed ledger
TIMEDpre-match records
OOSchronological evaluation
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Evidence firstEvery rating tied to data
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Transparent probabilitiesNo guaranteed outcomes
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Continuously updatedFixtures and market snapshots
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Selective by designPASS when value is insufficient
Current model preview
Upcoming matches, measured before kick-off.
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Public sample from the rolling 7-day forecast. A limited account shows up to two upcoming fixtures with selection, probability and likely-score forecasts. Full odds, advanced analysis and ticket tools are unavailable.
Create preview account →Public audit trail
Correct and missed predictions stay on the record.
The complete ledger matches original pre-match selections against official final scores and reports both outcomes.
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settled in the public record
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This preview shows recent Correct and Missed entries. Only the first saved prediction before kick-off qualifies.
View the complete Correct / Missed recordThe platform
Everything needed to analyse a fixture with discipline.
Move from schedule to probability, market context and final value rating without switching between fragmented tools.
02
MARKET CONTEXTOdds compared with model estimates.
See implied probability, bookmaker margin and the difference between model and market estimates in one comparison.
MODEL VIEW / PASS
03
EXTENDED VIEWMultiple angles per match.
Result, goals, player shots on target, corners, cards and a possible correct score.
1X2O/USOTCORCARCS
04
EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH
Ticket combinations tracked without forced selections.
Ticket bands explore different target ranges as research outputs. Their historical record includes losses and does not establish profitability.
Compact experiment 2–3 Balanced experiment 4–6 Higher-variance experiment 8–12 High-odds research 50+ · PASS
Model validation
Built to be measured, not merely displayed.
The system is evaluated chronologically: it learns only from matches available before each prediction. This reduces look-ahead bias and exposes weak markets instead of hiding them.
Expanding-window backtestPast data → future prediction → repeat
Proper scoring rulesBrier score, log loss and calibration
Market-specific statusValidated, research only or data pending
From data to decision
A clear workflow in four stages.
Collect
Fixtures, results, team context and available market snapshots.
Model
Strength ratings and score distributions generate probabilities.
Compare
Model probability is measured against the market price.
Rate
MODEL VIEW, PASS or DATA PENDING communicates the final status.
Public preview
Explore MatchMetric with limited account access.
No payment card is required and preview accounts do not convert automatically to paid plans. Paid subscriptions and the full workspace are not currently open.
Preview the evidence
€0
- Live forecast preview
- Public Correct/Missed ledger
- Model methodology and validation
Additional preview access
€0 during preview
No payment card and no automatic paid conversion.
- Up to two upcoming fixtures
- Limited forecast: selection, probability and likely score
- Account data export and deletion controls
- Full odds, advanced analysis and ticket tools unavailable
Questions
Clear answers before you create an account.
MatchMetric is an analytics service. It does not accept wagers, place bets or guarantee an outcome.
What does MODEL CRITERIA MET mean?
It is an automated research label indicating that the available data meets the model's configured probability, market and confidence criteria. It is not a recommendation or proof of positive future returns.
Why can an analysis show PASS?
PASS means the configured probability, market or confidence criteria were not met. Selectivity is part of the model discipline.
Are all markets statistically validated?
No. Each market displays its own status. Some are model-validated, while others remain research-only, data-pending or market-direction views.
Does MatchMetric place bets?
No. The platform provides independent statistical information and never executes a wager.
Match intelligence starts here