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CORE MODEL
Probabilities before opinions.
Elo, Poisson and Dixon–Coles signals are blended into explainable 1/X/2, goals and score distributions.
European football intelligence
Read the match.
Measure the edge.
One professional workspace for match probabilities, verified market prices, six analysis angles and transparent model evidence.
7,097real matches
1,969UCL temporal tests
+8.8%UCL 1X2 skill vs baseline
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Evidence firstEvery rating tied to data
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Transparent probabilitiesNo guaranteed outcomes
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Continuously updatedFixtures and market snapshots
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Selective by designPASS when value is insufficient
Current model preview
Upcoming matches, measured before kick-off.
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Public sample from the rolling 7-day forecast. PRO unlocks every available fixture, bookmaker odds and all six market views.
See the full analysis →Settled positively
Recently correct predictions.
Original pre-match selections matched against official final scores.
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correct predictions
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Only the first saved prediction before kick-off qualifies. Later recalculations cannot overwrite it.
View the complete Correct / Missed recordThe platform
Everything needed to analyse a fixture with discipline.
Move from schedule to probability, market context and final value rating without switching between fragmented tools.
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MARKET CONTEXTOdds translated into value.
See implied probability, bookmaker margin, model edge and expected value in one comparison.
VALUE PICK / PASS
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EXTENDED VIEWSix angles per match.
Result, goals, player shots on target, corners, cards and a possible correct score.
1X2O/USOTCORCARCS
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PORTFOLIO VIEW
Three validated ticket bands, without forced selections.
V3 targets 2–3, 4–6 and 8–12 using only validated positive-EV markets. A 50+ combination is kept strictly experimental.
Validated low variance 2–3 Validated balanced 4–6 Validated higher variance 8–12 High odds experiment 50+ · PASS
Model validation
Built to be measured, not merely displayed.
The system is evaluated chronologically: it learns only from matches available before each prediction. This reduces look-ahead bias and exposes weak markets instead of hiding them.
Expanding-window backtestPast data → future prediction → repeat
Proper scoring rulesBrier score, log loss and calibration
Market-specific statusValidated, research only or data pending
From data to decision
A clear workflow in four stages.
Collect
Fixtures, results, team context and available market snapshots.
Model
Strength ratings and score distributions generate probabilities.
Compare
Model probability is measured against the market price.
Rate
VALUE PICK, PASS or DATA PENDING communicates the final status.
Membership
Start free. Unlock the full workspace when ready.
No promises, no hidden tiers—just transparent access to the platform.
Explore the interface
€0 forever
- Preview two available fixtures
- Platform methodology
- Secure personal account
Full match intelligence
€5 / month for 3 months
Then €10/month. Cancel anytime.
- All available fixtures and odds
- Six analysis markets per match
- Four diversified multi-match variants
- Prediction history and scheduled updates
- Model and data intelligence
Questions
Clear answers before you subscribe.
MatchMetric is an analytics service. It does not accept wagers, place bets or guarantee an outcome.
What does a VALUE PICK mean?
The model probability exceeds the available market threshold after considering edge, expected value and data confidence.
Why can an analysis show PASS?
PASS means the available price does not meet the configured value threshold. Selectivity is part of the model discipline.
Are all six markets statistically validated?
No. Each market displays its own status. Some are model-validated, while others remain research-only or market-direction views.
Does MatchMetric place bets?
No. The platform provides independent statistical information and never executes a wager.
Match intelligence starts here